REPORT ON THE ANNUAL CALCULATION DIALOGUE 2026

INTRODUCTION & OVERVIEW

• Air Chief Marshal (Retd.) Arup Raha, former Chief of the Indian Air Force;
• General M. M. Naravane (Retd.), former Chief of the Army Staff;
• Mr. Brij Bhushan Agarwal, President, ICC; and
• Dr. Rajeev Singh, Director General, ICC.

KEY THEMES AND INSIGHTS

1. Viksit Bharat 2047 Vision and Strategic Challenges

• Hon’ble Governor of West Bengal, Shri R. N. Ravi:
  
  
  Addressing the gathering as Chief Guest, Governor Ravi underscored the importance of national vision, technological self-reliance, and civilisational confidence in achieving the goal of Viksit Bharat 2047. He emphasised that economic growth must be broad-based, equitable, and resilient against evolving global challenges. Highlighting India's rapid progress in research, startups, intellectual property creation, artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, and emerging technologies, he noted that indigenous innovation is central to the country's future.
  
  
  The Governor called for enhanced defence self-reliance, strategic capabilities, and societal priorities such as empowering youth and fostering inclusive civilisational values rooted in unity and Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (the world is one family). He praised India's contributions to renewable energy, digital public infrastructure (DPI), and global cooperation, urging institutions and citizens to actively contribute to building national capabilities for 2047.

2. India’s Global Leadership and Economic Transformation

• Mr. Brij Bhushan Agarwal (President, ICC):
  
  
  Highlighted India's emergence as a global economic and innovation leader, leveraging digital transformation, global partnerships, and manufacturing initiatives such as Make in India. He underscored India's demographic strength, resilience, and the historic opportunity presented by global supply chain shifts, identifying initiatives like PM Gati Shakti and the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme as crucial drivers for upgrading manufacturing and boosting investment attractiveness.

3. Defence and Strategic Preparedness in Global Uncertain Times

• Air Chief Marshal (Retd.) Arup Raha:
  
  
  Underscored the need for India to reinforce strategic resilience in a volatile geopolitical environment, emphasising maritime security, energy independence, next-generation warfare technology, and indigenous defence capabilities. He recommended accelerating the development of strategic infrastructure, expanding indigenous manufacturing, and leveraging diaspora talent.
  
  
  Next-generation warfare preparedness, he noted, requires enhanced capabilities in drones, missile systems, integrated air defence, and space-based assets. He stressed the importance of controlling strategic maritime chokepoints and developing the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as a major hub. Regarding energy security, he advocated reducing dependence on imported energy through thorium-based nuclear technologies, renewables, and expanded strategic reserves.

4. India’s Resilience and Vision for 2047

• Dr. Rajeev Singh (Director General, ICC):
  
  
  Highlighted India's resilience amidst global upheavals, emphasising leadership's decisive measures in pandemic response, global diplomacy, and economic reforms. He appreciated West Bengal's development potential and expressed the ICC's commitment to supporting the state's growth efforts—particularly raising per capita income substantially over the coming years.

STRATEGIC AUTONOMY, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, & GEOPOLITICS

• Gen. M. M. Naravane (Retd., former Army Chief):
  
  
  Reaffirmed India's strategic autonomy in global engagements, emphasising decision-making based strictly on national interest and cautious, pragmatic participation in multilateral forums like the Quad and BRICS.
• Mr. Bharat Karnad (Strategic Thinker):
  
  
  Advocated for a realistic foreign policy rooted in national self-reliance rather than overdependence on external alliances, especially with the West. He stressed the importance of confidence in India's own hard-power capabilities and pragmatic geopolitics.
• Dr. Srikant Kondapalli (JNU):
  
  
  Characterised India's calibrated responses to conflicts (such as in West Asia) as active diplomacy aligned with sovereignty, humanitarian concerns, and regional stability. He explained that India's “strategic silence” is a deliberate, principled approach balancing autonomy, diaspora welfare, and energy security.
• Mr. Nitin Gokhale (Defence Analyst):
  
  
  Emphasised ethics, strategic communication, and national interest in foreign policy, noting that India traditionally prioritises safeguarding core interests rather than seeking an active mediatory role. He observed that caution is a sensible course of action given evolving global unpredictability.
• Maj. Gen. Arun Roye (AVSM, VSM [Retd.], President, CENERS-K):
  
  
  Discussed the changing nature of warfare, the importance of maritime security, and complex regional geopolitics—including India's balancing act between the U.S. and Iran. He observed that the traditional Westphalian concept of sovereign nation-states and inviolable borders faces unprecedented challenges. He raised a key strategic question: How should India balance its expanding partnership with Washington while preserving its longstanding historical ties with Iran?

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES

• Prof. Alok Ray:
  
  
  Noted India's need for fiscal prudence, structural reforms, and an improved investment climate to sustain growth. He addressed challenges such as low domestic savings, expensive Indian equity markets, currency hedging costs, and structural impediments to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
• Dr. Ajitava Raychaudhuri:
  
  
  Highlighted short-term economic challenges (price stability, employment, and welfare of lower-income groups) and long-term growth imperatives (investment driven by savings), noting that rising prices for petroleum products and fertilisers pose ongoing concerns.
• Prof. Prabhat Patnaik:
  
  
  Argued that current global conflicts are symptoms of deeper structural weaknesses in the world economy, including a sustained slowdown driven by rising income inequalities and high levels of sovereign debt in the United States.
• Mr. Koushik Chatterjee (Executive Director & CFO, Tata Steel):
  
  
  Emphasised a profound structural transformation in the global economy moving from collaboration to deliberate fragmentation, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. He identified the West Asia conflict, the Russia–Ukraine war, and U.S.–China competition as major disruptive theatres, noting that while opportunities exist for India in supply chain diversification, vulnerabilities remain due to heavy reliance on imported energy.

CONCLUDING PERSPECTIVES

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

• Dr. Atreyee Mitra completed her Bachelor’s and Master’s in Political Science and International Relations at Jadavpur University, Kolkata, specialising in Southeast Asia. She completed her M.Phil. at the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, University of Calcutta, and holds a Doctorate in Political Science with a specialisation in International Relations. As a researcher and academician, she has contributed articles on strategy, focusing on geopolitical studies, international relations, and maritime security issues. She has participated in and presented papers in national and international seminars and has publications in journals and edited books. Currently, she is Director, Internship Program, and Life Member of CENERS-K. She is also an Honorary Research Fellow at the Institute for Contemporary Chinese Studies (ICCS), Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Kerala.